Fantasy football D/ST postseason guide: Surprise stars, potential disappointments and more

In fantasy football leagues, defenses are, for the most part, an afterthought. They get drafted late. They get streamed off the waiver wire. They are churned and burned. Sure, it’s great to have one like the Dallas Cowboys that scores a lot of points, but very few fantasy managers lose sleep if they don’t.

Advertisement

That said, the fantasy playoffs are here now, and that means it’s a whole new ballgame. Now, every weekly matchup is against a quality opponent. Every lineup decision is that much more important. Every fantasy point could be the difference between moving on or calling it a season.

In the playoffs, every position matters — even kickers. But since there’s no way I can be bribed, threatened or cajoled into writing about kickers, we’ll instead take a look at the defensive landscape for the fantasy playoffs —Top 10 units who should keep cruising, a few that fantasy managers should potentially be worried about, and some matchup plays that might just help propel fantasy managers to championship glory.

(If so, it’s customary to kick 70 percent of any winnings to the analyst who suggested said defense — or so I hear.)

Before we get into it, a quick note: In the regular season, there’s no real reason to carry a second defense — it’s rather a waste of a roster spot. But come the playoffs, it’s a different story. Depth at other positions isn’t as important.

There are a number of defenses that have a couple solid matchups during the fantasy postseason, but there’s a “hole” in that third week. Stacking a second defense that can fill in during that third matchup isn’t a bad idea at all.

In fact, there may just be a few “patches” mentioned over the course of this column.

Go figure.

Don’t Worry

Cleveland Browns

As injuries have continued to mount in Cleveland, the Browns have backslid a bit of late — before Sunday’s four-turnover, four-sack effort against Jacksonville, the team had surrendered 65 points over the previous two games combined. But the Browns remain the NFL’s No. 1 defense in terms of both total yards and passing yards allowed and are Top 10 in fantasy points among defenses. The Browns draw plus matchups with the Bears (sixth in points per game allowed to defenses) and Jets (second in points allowed) in Weeks 15 and 17, but a Week 16 tilt with the Houston Texans is a dilemma. However, waiver options like the Arizona Cardinals (at Chicago) and Seattle Seahawks (at Tennessee) could be used as stopgaps there.

Advertisement

Kansas City Chiefs

As weird as it sounds to say it, a pretty compelling argument can be made that Kansas City’s defense has played better than the offense this year — the team has quietly posted Top 10 numbers among defenses this season. There’s a good chance that the Chiefs will finish the season even higher than that, as Kansas City’s last three games are against a who’s who of “who?” at quarterback. In Week 14, it’s Bailey Zappe and a Patriots team allowing the third-most fantasy points per game to defenses in 2023. In Week 16, it’s Aidan O’ Connell and a Raiders team that ranks ninth in that regard. And to close the fantasy season it’s Jake Browning and the Cincinnati Bengals.

New York Jets

OK, so Jets fans saw “don’t worry,” the name of their team and then immediately began hurling obscenities and pounding Schnapps. And to be fair, New York’s Week 16 trip to Miami is cause for concern with fantasy’s eighth-ranked defense. But the Los Angeles Chargers or Carolina Panthers could be decent-fill-in plays with Top 10 matchups that week before the Jets finish the season strong with a trip to Washington and a home date against the Cleveland Browns. Both of those teams rank inside the Top 7 in fantasy points per game surrendered to defenses this season. The Jets have all kinds of problems, but Quinnen Williams and the defense aren’t one of them.

San Francisco 49ers

Through 13 weeks, the 49ers have actually been a better NFL defense than fantasy asset — the team ranks sixth in points among defenses. However, over the past month, the Niners are the highest-scoring defense in fantasy football — this is a team finding its stride on that side of the ball. The team has a tough matchup with the Baltimore Ravens in Santa Clara in Week 16, but we just saw these same Niners post a respectable line against the Eagles in Philadelphia, and San Francisco closes the season with a Top 5 fantasy matchup in Washington. If that Week 16 tilt with the Ravens worries you, consider stashing the Commanders — they host the offensive nightmare that is the New York Jets that week.

Worry

Baltimore Ravens

After 13 weeks, no team in the AFC has more fantasy points than the Ravens — heading into Sunday, they led the league in sacks and scoring defense and trail only the Cleveland Browns in yards allowed per game. But while the Ravens may have helped get fantasy managers to the playoffs, they could also help get them bounced. A Week 15 trip to Jacksonville looks better with Trevor Lawrence and Christian Kirk both banged up, but from there things get ugly. In Week 16 the Ravens face the worst fantasy matchup for defenses in the 49ers, and the fantasy season closes with a home date against the NFL’s No.1  offense in the Miami Dolphins.

Buffalo Bills

The good news is that in Championship Week, fantasy football’s fourth-ranked team defense plays host to a Patriots team that has given up the third-most fantasy points per game to the position and ranks 28th in total offense and dead last in the league in scoring defense. The bad news is that by then fantasy managers who start Buffalo may already be bounced — in both Week 15 and Week 16 the Bills draw bottom five matchups for team defenses, first at home against the Dallas Cowboys and then at SoFi Stadium against the Los Angeles Chargers (which could work out fine with Herbert potentially out with a thumb injury). That Championship Week matchup alone merits a stash, but in the first two rounds of the playoffs the best place for the Bills may well be the bench.

Advertisement

Dallas Cowboys

To this point in the season, the Cowboys lead the league in fantasy points among defenses, in no small part because Dallas cornerback DaRon Bland has more touchdowns than Davante Adams of the Raiders  and Chris Olave of the Saints. But the Dallas defense has sprung a leak or two of late, allowing 35 points to the Seattle Seahawks in Week 13. Now the Cowboys draw a brutal stretch to end the fantasy season—the Buffalo Bills (Week 15 — 30th in fantasy points per game allowed to defenses) and Detroit Lions (Week 17 — 24th) are both bottom 10 fantasy matchups for the position, and the meat in that sandwich is a Dolphins team that leads the NFL in total offense and paces the AFC in scoring.

Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins have been something of a feast-or-famine fantasy defense in 2023. There have been big stat lines like the Week 13 blowout win over the Commanders, and a couple of ugly outings like a lopsided loss to the Bills in Week 4. The Dolphins kick off the fantasy playoffs with a primo matchup against the hapless New York Jets, but after Week 15 it may be time to bid farewell to the Dolphins defense. In Week 16, the Dolphins host the Cowboys, who have allowed the second-fewest fantasy points per game to defenses. Then in Week 17, it’s at a Baltimore Ravens team that ranks 25th in points per game given up to the position.

Waiver Winners

Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons may be the least impressive division title contender in the NFL, but the Atlanta defense has been quietly OK — heading into Sunday, the Falcons were seventh in the league in points allowed in 2023. They also draw excellent fantasy matchups in two of the three weeks over the fantasy playoffs. A Week 16 home date with Indianapolis isn’t especially favorable, but in Week 15 the Falcons are in Charlotte against a one-win Carolina Panthers team, and in Week 17 Atlanta is on the road against a Bears team that has been kind to opposing defenses dating back to 2022.

Houston Texans

Rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud has drawn most of the credit for the vastly improved Houston Texans in 2023, but the Houston defense has also improved considerably — no one is going to confuse them with the 1985 Bears, but youngsters like cornerback Derek Stingley and edge-rusher Will Anderson are coming into their own. As it happens, the Texans are also the only team in the NFL that draws Top 10 fantasy matchups for team defenses in three straight games during the fantasy playoffs — at Tennessee (No. 8), vs. Cleveland (No. 7) and then vs. Tennessee again at NRG Stadium. The best quarterback the team will face over that span is probably Joe Flacco’s corpse.

Los Angeles Rams

The Rams have undergone seismic changes defensively of late — the team bid goodbye to high-priced veterans like edge-rusher Leonard Floyd, inside linebacker Bobby Wagner and cornerback Jalen Ramsey this past offseason. To be fair, the Rams are not an especially good defensive team and, through 13 weeks, only two teams have fewer fantasy points this season. But the Rams face a number of teams that have been kind to opposing team defenses this season, including a Week 17 matchup with a Giants team that leads the NFL in fantasy points per game given up to defenses. The Commanders and Giants have combined to allow a staggering 127 sacks this season. That is not a made-up number.

Gary Davenport is a two-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year. Follow him on Twitter @IDP Sharks.

go-deeper

GO DEEPER

Fantasy Football Rankings Week 15: Sleepers, projections, starts, sits | Antonio Gibson, Zay Flowers and more

(Photo of Derek Stingley: Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports)

ncG1vNJzZmismJqutbTLnquim16YvK57lGppb3FkZnxzfJFsZmpqX2Z%2BcLLAp6uaq6lis7C705uYpaRdmXq0wIyppqyso5qutLvNZp6uoZSaerTB0ampoquVYsC1rdGsZKmnpJq7tbXApWSdoaOWvbG7yKerpp2eqcBurc2dZKanopp8