By the time they play their first college game, freshmen have already been endlessly evaluated, sorted and ranked. We see their high school highlights on social media and even some of their games on ESPN. They are known quantities, if still unfinished products.
Identifying which freshmen will truly shine is not, however, an exact science. Last season, Alabama’s Brandon Miller was the runaway national freshman of the year, a consensus All-American and the SEC player of the year on the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament. He was the first college player picked in the 2023 NBA Draft. But Miller was just the 14th-ranked player in the Class of 2022 according to the 247Sports Composite and No. 11 in the Recruiting Services Consensus Index. When we did our predictions this time a year ago for freshman of the year, he didn’t receive a single vote.
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But we’ll try again. And this time, there’s a clear favorite, in our view. Hint: It’s the USC freshman whose dad is not an active NBA legend.
Isaiah Collier was the choice for seven of our 12 voters. He was the only player to receive more than one vote (UCLA’s Aday Mara, Kentucky’s DJ Wagner, UConn’s Stephon Castle, Duke’s Caleb Foster and Iowa State’s Omaha Biliew each got a nod). We’re not exactly going out on a limb here, as Collier was the No. 1 player in the Class of 2023, per the 247Sports Composite. But what makes the 6-foot-3 point guard so good? We asked CJ Moore to break down his game:
Isaiah Collier, USC
The transition from high school to college should be easier for Collier than most, because he’ll play next to one of the best returning guards in college basketball in Boogie Ellis and another proven veteran in Kobe Johnson. Collier doesn’t have to be an elite scorer. That’s what is refreshing about watching Collier play. He’s not hunting numbers. He likes to facilitate and pick his spots to attack. And with a head of steam, he’s in a special category of prospect.
Collier is like a running back in his ability to spot holes in the defense and then explode through them.
Notice that he picked up his dribble at the 3-point line and still found a way to get all the way to the basket. Collier is going to do a majority of his scoring in the paint and at the free-throw line. He’s got incredible strength for a freshman. Bodies just fly off him, and even when he’s hit, he can balance himself and still get the ball up softly on the rim.
Based on what USC did this summer on its foreign tour, it appears Andy Enfield is going to put the ball in Collier’s hands. He doesn’t have to worry that Collier will hog the ball too much. He has good vision and is looking to pass. He can make all the pick-and-roll reads, seeing the multiple levels of defenders.
Collier will have to adjust to how quickly windows close at the college level. He has a tendency to try squeeze the ball in tiny windows, and he was turnover-prone this summer because of it. He simply needs to pick his spots and be willing to make the easy pass. But what I love about him is that his head is always up and he sees plays developing.
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This play below where he rejects the ball screen and then eyes the cutter is special.
How gaudy Collier’s numbers are could depend on how he shoots the ball. He’s a capable shooter, but that’s probably the biggest weakness in his game right now. Luckily the Trojans have enough around him that he doesn’t need to put up huge numbers.
Enfield has had some good teams before, but this might be his most complete group. Collier should be judged on how much winning he does, and he has a chance to lead his group on a deep March run.
(Our panel of voters: Nicole Auerbach, Tobias Bass, Brian Bennett, Scott Dochterman, Brian Hamilton, Brendan Marks, CJ Moore, Dana O’Neil, Brendan Quinn, Joe Rexrode, Kyle Tucker, and Justin Williams.)
Previous predictions:
(Photo: Courtesy of USC Athletics)
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